A friend recently wrote a post about what Bernie Sanders must do to break through and win the Democratic nomination. His thesis was that Sanders must do a better job of appealing to minority voters, and be able to peel off substantial support among party insiders/super delegates/elected officials. He made a good case, and his post is well worth reading.
But I think there is something more important than any other consideration -- not just for Sanders, but for any candidate that hopes to beat Clinton for the nomination. They must convince Democratic voters that they could beat the GOP nominee in the November general election.
Most Democrats see the 2016 election as very important, and they believe it would be disastrous to allow a Republican to win the White House (both for domestic and foreign policy). The Republicans still have not shed their failed policies of "trickle-down" economics at home and advancing American interests through military power abroad. That, combined with the possibility of several Supreme Court nominations, makes the 2016 presidential race a critical one.
Democrats have faith that Hillary Clinton could win the 2016 election. They aren't at all sure that any other candidate could do that. And there's some evidence for that belief. When polls put Clinton against the top Republicans, she comes out on top -- but the same cannot be said of any of the other candidates.
If a candidate, Sanders or anyone else, is to have any hope of winning the Democratic nomination, they are going to have to first convince Democrats they can beat the GOP nominee in November. So far, none of them have done that.
The chart above was made from a recent CNN / ORC Poll -- done between June 26th and 28th of 428 Democratic voters, with a 4.5 point margin of error.
I think I touched on this in a comment the other day (or maybe I just thought it). It's easy for me to be a Sanders supporter right now because he doesn't have a chance to win the nomination. But if he becomes a real threat to Clinton, I have to get clear about how he would perform in the general election. I would prefer not to have to do that calculation, because that's really not my thing regarding politics. We do, however, know that economic factors are the most important thing in presidential elections. Just the same, Sanders is not a traditional Democrat. Like I said: lots to think about if it comes to it.
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